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Cese de Ginebra para Pascua: Ucrania

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Vladimir Putin-Snowden-Is-Naturaleza en RusiaThe call to all sides to refrain from provocation and violence came as the major conclusion of this week’s Geneva talks between US, Russia, European Union and Ukraine foreign ministers. With the signature on the final document, Ukrainian citizens observed the creation of a second major international declaration, destined to resolve the profound crisis of Ukrainian statehood – the first one, signed by ousted President Yanukovich on 21 February was short-lived. The massacre on Maidan Square abruptly terminated diplomatic efforts and pushed the country into disarray.

Esta prehistoria alimenta el escepticismo de la opinión pública: ¿puede la declaración firmada tan lejos como a orillas del lago Ginebra convencer a los manifestantes en el río Dnepr de reconocer al gobierno interino de Kiev y renunciar a sus reclamos de independencia?

Algunos han interpretado la posición del ministro ruso Lavrov en Ginebra como un abandono del plan de federalización y una "traición" definitiva de los rusos en el este de Ucrania, bajo la amenaza de sanciones.

But it didn’t take long for eastern Ukrainian bloggers to respond: as they were not represented as a party to the negotiations, they consider themselves as not being obliged to follow the guidelines – they expect the ‘junta’ in Kiev, who ascended to power through violence, to make the first step towards disarmament. After the eastern Ukraine violent clashes, where loss of life was reported, it seems that the protestors are not willing to raise a white flag at Geneva. It would be a challenge for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) to make them change their minds.

Después de la orden del presidente interino Turchinov de enviar tropas al Este para luchar contra los manifestantes declarados como 'terroristas', la confianza simplemente no está ahí: las políticas de los nuevos gobernantes en Kiev han cambiado a la velocidad de la ruleta: desde el principio Ley que prohíbe el idioma ruso para otorgarle un estatus casi oficial, para la operación 'antiterrorista' contra los separatistas del Este hace apenas unos días, para una promesa de atribución de poderes para las regiones. Sin embargo, todo esto está lejos de ser un premio gordo para los separatistas que aspiran a la independencia y la creación de un nuevo estado, 'Novorossiya', reviviendo el nombre histórico de la provincia rusa, literalmente 'Nueva Rusia'.

Obviously the profound crisis of the Ukrainian statehood is aggravated by this lack of trust on behalf of the inhabitants of eastern Ukraine, in the genuine character of the Kiev declarations – the social networks are full of threats of retribution: “We can throw you promises first and we can start hanging you after,” bloodthirsty tweets that are receiving numerous ‘Likes’. The promise of the gallows for the separatists by Ukrainian internet-users has more impact on the separatists’ state of mind than the Geneva diplomatic artwork and the timid efforts of the OSCE.

Meanwhile, the buzz on a new wave of  upcoming US sanctions against Russia does not leave much hope of ending the conflict with the Geneva declaration, it is just a pause in the ongoing drama of the ‘Balkanization’ of Ukraine. Composed of different territories within different political contexts, the country represents a complex patchwork of cultures related to different civilizations – subsequently, world powers are standing behind their correlating communities.

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Defending their protégées in Kiev, the EU is considering economic sanctions, such as a ban on technologies to hinder Russia’s modernization. However, these will backfire on Europe, as the anticipated rejection of France to sell Mistral helicopter carriers to Russians would deprive the French economy of €1 billion – a move that will hardly be understood by French workers, whose interests are to be sacrificed for the good of the interim Kiev government, including seven (!) notorious oligarchs.

Germany’s Foreign Minister Steinmeier is calling to divert the creative energy from sanctions to the regulation of the crisis. Apparently, the US economy is not interdependent with Russia, and in the case of sanctions there will be no direct negative effect. Reportedly, there have been US threats to freeze President Putin’s assets in Switzerland.  But it is not in Mr. Putin’s character to succumb as an ultimate sacrifice to US geopolitical ambition.

It is hardly a coincidence that during the direct talks with President Putin, the US’s biggest ‘trouble-maker’ Snowden showed up – the Russians have hinted that they have more aces up their sleeves to continue the power game. As long as el rapport de force Se aplica, no habrá fin a la crisis en Ucrania.

 

Anna van Densky

 

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